Industrials Practice Overview

Please join Jonathan Mishkin, the leader of TM Capital’s initiatives in the packaging and print sectors, as he discusses the current challenges facing the industry with three thought leaders in the space: Tony Allott, the current chairman and former CEO of Silgan Holdings, and two very well regarded former equity analysts, Mark Wilde, of BMO Capital Markets and Adam Josephson, of Key Bank. They cover the following topics: the challenging macroeconomic environment, the changing nature of packaging, including the significance of the growth of the packaging distribution cohort, and technological developments that are impacting the industry.

Looking forward to 2025 and beyond, there is cautious optimism for the building products sector following a year of foundational growth in 2024. The Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point cut in mid-September, overlaid with market expectations for additional easing, has improved the outlook for construction spending in both residential and non-residential markets moving forward. Structural, long-term demand drivers persist in the residential market despite sluggish new home construction and renovation spending through YTD 2024. As of the end of 2023, the shortage of single-family housing was estimated at more than 7.2 million units, with estimates indicating that homebuilders will need to triple the pace of new residential construction to close the supply gap by 2030. In the nonresidential sector, public funding for the repair and improvement of the nation’s infrastructure, and the onshoring and re-shoring of critical manufacturing capabilities continues to drive sizeable investment. Although the commercial sector continues to face acute challenges, planning activity is accelerating – supporting a positive industry outlook for 2025 and beyond, with the warehouse, hotel, retail and data center sectors exhibiting particular strength. Despite mixed sector performance through mid-October, merger and acquisition activity has been a bright spot for the building products sector in 2024. Per data aggregated from CapitalIQ and Pitchbook, total transaction volume is up ~25% compared to the same period a year prior and is equal or above last year’s levels across all transaction types – strategic, financial sponsor-backed strategic and pure sponsor-driven transactions. Strategics and financial sponsor-backed strategics have accounted for most of the activity, with the two cohorts increasing deal volume by 28% in aggregate compared to the same period a year ago, while accounting for ~89% of deal volume through mid-October. Download our 2024 Building Products Report to read our views on the many factors influencing the building products market in the near-term, and why the longer-term outlook for the sector remains attractive.

Elements of stabilization in the building products market are emerging despite continued headwinds in 2023. Following significant volatility in 2021 and 2022, input price growth has moderated, supply chains have been restructured and project timelines have become more dependable, if not normalized. Despite these positive developments, the building products market continues to face near-term headwinds in the form of multi-decade high interest rates, overlaid with continued labor shortages and elevated prices for most key construction materials. However, the longer-term outlook for residential and nonresidential segments remains robust, with significant underlying demand for new construction and the continued renovation of existing space. Download our 2023 Building Products Report to read our views on the many factors influencing the building products market in the near-term, and why the longer-term outlook for the sector remains attractive.

Over the last 15 years, TM Capital has developed a market-leading Equipment Rental and Dealer sector practice, advising a broad range of privately-owned and financial-backed clients. Since the beginning of 2021, TM Capital has completed 10 M&A transactions in the industry, totaling over $2 billion in aggregate enterprise value – the firm’s significant track record and wide-ranging expertise has enabled us to educate market participants on the attractiveness of the industry and meaningfully expand financial investor interest in the sector. Download TM Capital’s 2023 Equipment Rental & Dealer Report to read our views of the sector, the associated valuation dynamics, macroeconomic backdrop, key M&A trends and broadening investor interest.

The U.S. residential and commercial markets are facing near-term headwinds in the form of supply shortages, interest rate increases and material slowdowns that are slowing the pace of construction and diminishing homebuyer purchasing power. Despite near-term challenges, longer-term demand fundamentals remain unchanged, as the largest homebuying cohort in U.S. history prepares to enter the residential housing market, and the inventory of commercial space is aligning with a shifting modern economy. Download our 2022 Building Products Report to read our views of the many contributing factors to near-term challenges in the market, and why the longer-term outlook for the building products sector remains robust.

The U.S. housing market entered the new decade riding strong demographic and macroeconomic tailwinds despite the underlying challenges of historically low housing inventory and market uncertainty related to the eleven-year recovery.

Though the packaging sector might not be top of mind as an industry most impacted by the digital revolution, the migration of retail away from brick-and-mortar in favor of E-Commerce and the ever expanding complexity of logistics and fulfillment are forcing big changes.

The history of the U.S. Equipment Rental sector is characterized both by growth and evolution. What was once a small, highly fragmented sector primarily consisting of local, independent tool shops, is now a multi-billion-dollar industry with an enhanced ability to address the ever-expanding rental needs of both small contractors and national accounts.